Telecommunications networks are now a backbone of Africa’s economic and social development. They connect businesses to markets, enable digital services, and support everything from mobile banking to emergency communications. However, across Africa, telecom infrastructure is increasingly exposed to floods, tropical cyclones, extreme heat, and wildfires, which already affect network reliability in several regions.
A recent PROPARCO study conducted by AXA Climate illustrates the scale of this challenge.
The analysis assessed more than 10,000 telecom assets and 15,000 kilometers of cable networks under future climate scenarios across Senegal, Togo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, Mayotte, the Comoros, Réunion, and Madagascar. The study covered a wide range of infrastructure, including mobile antennas, data centers, submarine cable landing stations, overhead and underground cable networks, and elements of the telecom supply chain.
The results highlighted the growing exposure of telecom networks to climate hazards. Extreme heat, forest fires, floods, and landslides are projected to compromise infrastructure integrity, increase maintenance needs, and cause service interruptions. Importantly, these risks are expected to intensify significantly by 2050, potentially generating both physical damage and substantial economic losses through disrupted services and reduced revenues.
Why are telecom infrastructures particularly vulnerable to climate and natural hazards in Africa?
Telecommunications networks rely on a complex and highly interconnected value chain. Beyond towers and fiber cables, networks depend on data centers, power systems, cooling units, and transmission equipment. Disruptions affecting any one of these components can cascade across the network and impact overall connectivity.
At the same time, telecom networks are highly distributed systems. A single operator may manage tens of thousands of towers, fiber routes, and base stations spread across vast territories. These assets often cross diverse and sometimes fragile environments, floodplains, coastal zones, mountainous areas, or densely populated informal settlements, where land availability is limited and environmental risks are higher.
What specific natural hazards pose the greatest threat to telecom infrastructure in Africa?
We have identified three major hazards for telecom assets in Africa.
First, extreme heat is emerging as one of the most pervasive threats, affecting nearly all types of telecom infrastructure—from towers and data centers to cable landing stations and power systems. As temperatures increasingly exceed 35°C, critical components in mobile towers such as batteries, radios, and cooling systems may face heightened thermal stress. Data centers are especially vulnerable. In Senegal, for example, maximum daily temperatures could reach 45.2°C by 2030 and rise further to 46.4°C by 2050—well above historical baselines. This underscores the urgent need for heat-resilient design and enhanced cooling systems.
Second, tropical cyclones represent a more geographically concentrated but highly destructive threat, particularly in the Indian Ocean region. Countries such as Madagascar are regularly exposed to powerful storms. Mobile towers are especially at risk in Madagascar, the Comoros, and Mayotte. High winds can damage tower structures, detach cables, and compromise rooftop installations, creating both service disruptions and safety hazards. Beyond the towers themselves, aerial cable are at very high risk.
Finally, wildfires are a less widespread but rapidly emerging risk in specific regions. Climate projections notably indicate an increasing likelihood of wildfire events in parts of East Africa. Telecom infrastructure located near forests, vegetation, or rural transport corridors is particularly exposed. Fires can cause direct physical damage to assets while also disrupting power supply and network backhaul, leading to cascading service interruptions.
In terms of physical damage, tropical cyclones are projected to be the leading cause of destruction for data centers by 2030, followed by wildfires. When it comes to business interruption, the picture shifts. Wildfires emerge as the primary risk for cable landing stations, while data centers face significant disruption from both heatwaves and wildfires.
How can climate risk assessments help protect telecom infrastructure?
A climate risk assessment for telecom infrastructure helps operators identify vulnerable assets and prioritize resilience investments across their networks.
1/ The first step is climate risk modelling. Climate projections are analyzed under different SSP scenarios and across multiple time horizons such as 2030 and 2050.
2/ The second step is geospatial mapping. Telecom assets, including towers, underground and overhead fiber routes, and data centers, are mapped and overlaid with climate hazard data using GIS tools. This enables a detailed hazard exposure analysis, allowing operators to identify which assets are located in high-risk areas.
3/ The third step is infrastructure vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability thresholds are defined jointly with telecom operator engineers to understand how different assets respond to specific hazards. This step helps determine the conditions under which infrastructure could be impacted.
What technical solutions exist to make telecom infrastructure more resilient in Africa?
There is no single solution for climate-proofing telecom infrastructure. Effective adaptation strategies must reflect local climate conditions, geographic constraints, and the technical characteristics of the infrastructure involved. Resilience therefore needs to be addressed at the asset level. To support this process, AXA Climate has developed a climate adaptation guide designed to help operators better understand their vulnerabilities and identify practical adaptation measures.
Several technical approaches that can significantly strengthen telecom network resilience were identified. The main three ones are:
1/ Network redundancy. Alternative fiber routes, backup microwave links, and distributed network architecture can help maintain connectivity when parts of the network are disrupted.
2/ Infrastructure placement. Sensitive equipment such as data centers and power systems should not be installed in flood-prone areas. Elevating critical components can dramatically reduce the risk of water damage and prolonged outages.
3/ Cooling systems. In regions where extreme heat is rising, maintenance of the cooling systems will be all the more important to avoid disruptions. In addition, in regions where water scarcity is a concern, relying exclusively on water-based cooling can create new vulnerabilities.
Climate risk assessments provide an important foundation by helping operators quantify potential damages and revenue losses. This information makes it possible to prioritize investments and demonstrate the economic benefits of adaptation measures to the company and its investors.
