The mining and metals sector sits at the centre of a structural paradox. It is among the most carbon-intensive industries globally, with rising demand for electronics and modern infrastructure driving continued growth in extraction and production. At the same time, mining activities generate significant environmental and social externalities. Yet this sector is also indispensable to the transition towards a low-carbon economy, supplying the critical materials required for renewable energy systems, electrification and digitalisation.
As a result, it faces a dual exposure to climate-related challenges, from physical risks such as water stress, extreme heat and flooding, to transition risks linked to regulation, market shifts and evolving stakeholder expectations.
A strategic partnership aimed at improving climate risk transparency and resilience across the global metals and minerals sector.
TDi Sustainability and AXA Climate have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to uniquely combine TDi’s deep supply chain ESG data, due diligence expertise, and digital risk management capabilities with AXA Climate’s in-house scientific data and knowledge, advanced climate modelling, and climate adaptation know-how backed by extensive industrial experience.
By integrating complementary datasets and methodologies, the partnership is designed to support responsible sourcing, strengthen climate adaptation strategies, and improve long-term supply chain resilience for stakeholders across critical mineral value chains.
Identifying actionable climate and related risk metrics – including water stress, extreme heat, landslide risk and flood – at the site level, will enable mining companies, investors, OEMs, and other stakeholders to better understand, and act, on emerging climate related risks.
Mining companies face a growing set of operational, safety, and financial challenges as climate impacts intensify.
Heat risk is identified by the TDi and AXA Climate teams as the fastest-growing physical peril affecting mining operations within the scope of this collaboration.
By 2050, one-third of the mining portfolio analysed is expected to be at high or very high heat risk, meaning that sites are likely to experience a significantly higher number of extreme heat days and new temperature extremes compared to historical local climate patterns. Such increases in heatwave intensity and frequency can cause overheating of equipment, reduce performance, result in temporary shutdowns and faster wear of key components – in turn driving higher maintenance and replacement costs. Heat also negatively affects working conditions, increasing the risk of heat-related health issues, reducing worker alertness, and raising accident rates. These impacts have direct implications for both operational continuity and corporate reputation.
Water scarcity represents the most significant and persistent risk across all time horizons analysed by the team.
By 2050, competition for limited water resources is expected to intensify, with 77% of sites analysed being in regions facing extreme water stress spread across all continents. Reduced water availability may increase tensions with local communities over water use and constrain on-site productivity, as insufficient water supplies can slow extraction and industrial processes and limit the ability to effectively manage dust. Increased dryness combined with windy conditions expand dust dispersion zones, posing hazards to surrounding communities and requiring more robust suppression measures.
Prolonged drought and water scarcity threaten the continuity of ore processing – potentially reducing throughput, and in severe cases forcing complete operational stoppages.
Conversely, increased intensity of extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change can trigger truck slippage, slope instability, pit flooding, and damage to critical access routes, while inundation of processing plants and electrical systems can halt production and compromise worker safety.
Flood events also increase the likelihood of tailings seepage or dam overflow, which can lead to prolonged shutdowns and costly remediation, especially if dewatering systems fail during infrastructure disruptions.
Many mining facilities were originally designed for climate extremes expected once in a century, yet these events are becoming far more frequent, rendering historic design parameters inadequate for the new climate reality. Together, these pressures underline the urgent need for updated climate adaptation planning, robust risk assessments, and more resilient infrastructure across the mining sector, alongside more transparent climate risk adaptations that enable investment firms to invest more confidently into mining companies within more unstable climate zones.
Industry Adaptation Partner, Rayann Al Jallad, AXA Climate, said:
“Adapting means embracing a systemic view of risks – both environmental and social – and understanding how they interconnect. Adaptation is essential to ensure the long-term viability of communities and businesses alike, and it requires recognition of the unique realities of each local context. The combination of TDi’s strategic expertise and knowledge of mine sites across the world, together with AXA Climate’s ability to quantify site-specific exposure to physical climate and translate this into operational adaptation measures, will enable local actors in the critical minerals value chain to adapt practices based on their specific needs and circumstances.”
TDi Executive Chair, Assheton Stewart Carter, said:
“This collaboration reflects TDi Sustainability and AXA Climate’s shared commitment to enhance climate risk transparency in the critical minerals supply chain. Both of our organisations acknowledge the increasing need for robust, scientifically backed data to support responsible sourcing, investment, and supply chain resilience.”
Supporting safer, more resilient mining operations
The data produced as part of the partnership will be made available through the TDi Digital Platform, which supports stakeholders across critical minerals value chains to identify risks, conduct due diligence, simplify compliance, and strengthen operational and reputational risk management.
