As COP31 takes place in Antalya, Türkiye, a report developed by the teams at AXA Climate and AXA Türkiye provides a comprehensive overview of how climate risks could evolve across the country. Drawing on projections from seven global climate models as well as local data, the report analyses the geographical distribution of climate risks across Türkiye and their potential implications for society, the economy and strategic sectors.
Nearly three-quarters of Türkiye’s population could be exposed to high or very high water stress
According to the report, around 65 million people could be exposed to high or very high water stress in Türkiye by 2050, equivalent to nearly 74% of the country’s current population. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasing demand for water could also leave around 66% of the country facing significant water scarcity.
These changes could directly affect a wide range of sectors, from urban water supply and agricultural production to industry and energy generation. Measures taken today to improve water resource management will therefore play a key role in strengthening Türkiye’s capacity to adapt to future climate risks.
Rising temperatures could affect health, energy systems and working conditions
Average temperatures could rise by around 4°C nationwide, while a quarter of Türkiye could experience at least five days per year with temperatures above 40°C. Under these conditions, around 23 million people could be affected by heat stress, including nearly 11 million people living in major cities. Extreme heat could have wide-ranging consequences for health, energy systems and working conditions.
Growing demand for air conditioning could place additional pressure on energy networks, while higher temperatures could also worsen outdoor working conditions and affect productivity.
Wildfire, flood and landslide risks could vary significantly across regions
The effects of climate change are expected to vary considerably across Türkiye. The report shows that some areas could be primarily exposed to one particular risk, while others could face several intensifying climate hazards at the same time. By 2050:
- Around 10 million people could be exposed to high wildfire risk.
- Nearly 14 million people could face high or very high landslide risk.
- Around 4.5 million people could live in areas exposed to flooding.
- Nearly half of Türkiye’s population could experience heavy rainfall events more frequently.
Interactions between these hazards could amplify their impacts across wider areas.
For example, damage to transport infrastructure from heavy rainfall could disrupt supply chains. Similarly, prolonged periods of heat and drought could increase wildfire risk while placing further pressure on water resources. Assessing climate risks together is therefore essential for urban planning, infrastructure investment and anticipating broader economic change.
Water management is becoming a major challenge for agriculture
Türkiye plays an important role in global food markets, with fruit and nut exports exceeding $6 billion in 2025. However, by 2050, more than half of the country’s agricultural regions could face very high water stress. Crops including grapes, olives, citrus fruits, pistachios, figs and apricots could come under increasing pressure from declining water availability and extreme heat.
In some parts of south-eastern Anatolia, maximum temperatures could approach 50°C, creating new challenges for agricultural production and food security. These projections reinforce the importance of using water resources efficiently, improving production planning and protecting food security.
Istanbul and Antalya face different climate risks
Antalya could experience more than 30 additional days above 40°C each year
Antalya, which is hosting COP31 and is one of the Mediterranean’s leading tourist destinations, could experience more than 30 additional days per year with temperatures above 40°C by 2050. Rising temperatures and longer dry periods are also expected to significantly increase wildfire risk in surrounding areas.
Istanbul faces growing flood and landslide risks
In Istanbul, Türkiye’s economic capital, the risk profile is different. The metropolitan area is home to more than 15 million people and combines a high population density, significant economic activity and extensive critical infrastructure.
By 2050, around 322,000 people could live in areas exposed to flood risk, while nearly 1.5 million people could live in areas facing high landslide risk. Major transport routes and essential infrastructure could also be affected by climate events.
Beyond identifying future risks, the report highlights several measures that could help reduce their impacts. These include developing more detailed risk maps, strengthening early warning systems, investing in resilient infrastructure, improving water management, and integrating climate projections into urban planning and investment decisions.
Understanding the risks and acting today is essential
Antoine Denoix, CEO of AXA Climate, and Yavuz Ölken, CEO of AXA Türkiye, emphasise that the report provides a clearer understanding of the climate risks Türkiye could face and underlines the importance of acting now:
“Our report clearly shows how climate risks vary across Türkiye and how they could affect many aspects of our daily lives and our economy. Climate change is no longer a distant scenario: it is a risk whose economic, social and insurance-related consequences are already being felt today. It is also a new reality that is profoundly changing the way insurance operates.
This is why it is essential to better understand these risks, use data to anticipate them and help reduce their consequences. We need to consider the role of insurance beyond simply compensating for losses, adopting an approach that helps better protect our customers and society.
At AXA Climate and AXA Türkiye, we are working to anticipate risks, raise awareness, prevent losses and strengthen society’s capacity to adapt to changing climate conditions.
We attach great importance to the work being carried out in this area by public institutions, including the Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change and AFAD, Türkiye’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, and we support their efforts. Drawing on the insurance sector’s knowledge, experience and expertise in risk management, we will continue to contribute with determination to the future of our country.”
