New mapping by AXA Climate shows that conditions conducive to wildfires are now extending across the entire country. For decades, wildfire risk in France was seen as a challenge largely confined to the Mediterranean coast. But climate change is not only increasing the severity of wildfire conditions, it is redrawing the geography of risk across France. Across the regions surrounding the cities analysed by AXA Climate, the average number of days with high wildfire risk could rise by nearly 70% by 2050 and by almost 130% by 2100.
Climate change is permanently altering wildfire risk
Historically concentrated around the Mediterranean coast, wildfire risk is now changing scale in France. New analysis by AXA Climate shows that climate change is driving a rapid expansion of conditions favourable to wildfires into central, western and northern regions of the country.
These projections are based on a warming scenario of up to +4°C by 2100 in France. They indicate that many regions could experience several weeks each year of weather conditions conducive to wildfires, compared with just a few days today.
Antoine Denoix, Chief Executive Officer of AXA Climate, said:
“Wildfires are no longer a risk confined to southern France. Climate change is fundamentally reshaping where and how they occur. In future, a large part of the country will be exposed to conditions favourable to wildfire ignition and spread.”
Wildfires typically result from a combination of high temperatures, vegetation dried out by prolonged drought, and windy conditions. As the climate changes, this combination is becoming more frequent and persisting for longer periods. The consequence is a longer wildfire season and a growing number of exposed regions.
Fire-prone conditions are spreading far beyond southern France
While the Mediterranean region remains the most exposed area, the key finding of this study is the spread of wildfire risk across the rest of the country.
| City | Today | 2050 (+2.7°C) | 2100 (+4°C) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perpignan | 37 days | 53 days | 66 days |
| Marseille | 48 days | 60 days | 78 days |
| Toulouse | 6 days | 15 days | 25 days |
| Lyon | 5 days | 12 days | 16 days |
| Tours | 4 days | 11 days | 18 days |
| Nantes | 3 days | 9 days | 15 days |
| Rennes | 3 days | 7 days | 11 days |
| Paris region | 2 days | 8 days | 9 days |
| Dijon | 1 day | 6 days | 10 days |
| Lille | 1 day | 3 days | 4 days |
In other words, some cities in northern and central France could one day face more high-risk wildfire days than certain southern regions experience today.
How France can adapt to growing wildfire risk
While climate change is increasing the likelihood of wildfires, their impacts are not inevitable. Several French regions are already testing adaptation measures that can reduce either the risk itself or its consequences.
1. In Gironde: diversifying forests to make them more resilient
Following the devastating wildfires of summer 2022, which destroyed more than 30,000 hectares of forest, authorities in Gironde launched a major reforestation strategy for the Landes de Gascogne forest. While maritime pine remains central to the landscape, forest managers are now encouraging the introduction of broadleaf species such as oak, birch, chestnut and alder in selected areas.
The aim is to break up the uniformity of forest stands. Forests dominated by a single species allow flames to spread more rapidly. By contrast, greater species diversity creates natural breaks in fuel continuity, enhances biodiversity and improves resilience to both drought and wildfire.
2. In Gard: creating a protective buffer around villages
In Langlade, near Nîmes, residents and local authorities have maintained a wide cleared zone around the village for several years.
This approximately seven-kilometre-long buffer zone acts as a protective barrier. By reducing combustible vegetation close to homes, it slows the advance of flames, facilitates fire-fighting operations and lowers the risk of a wildfire developing into an urban fire. Since the scheme was introduced, no wildfire has directly threatened the village.
3. In Var: using grazing as a natural wildfire prevention tool
In several parts of the Var department, fuel breaks are maintained through silvopastoralism, the grazing of sheep, goats and cattle within forested landscapes.
By feeding on grasses, scrub and young shrubs, livestock reduce the volume of vegetation that can fuel a wildfire. These less-vegetated areas help slow the spread of flames while reducing the need for mechanical vegetation clearance. Today, almost 100,000 hectares are managed in this way across the department, demonstrating how agricultural activities can also serve as an effective wildfire prevention measure.
These examples show that action is possible. Adaptation is not simply about observing the impacts of climate change. It means transforming landscapes and communities to make them less vulnerable. The challenge now is to scale up these solutions, assess their effectiveness and integrate them more fully into public policy and insurance mechanisms.
How insurance is adapting to growing wildfire risk
The intensification of wildfires presents a new challenge for insurers. Fires are becoming more frequent, more extensive and more costly. Following a major event, local authorities, forestry companies and agricultural operators often need immediate funding to secure affected sites, repair infrastructure and restart operations.
Against this backdrop, parametric insurance is gaining traction. Unlike traditional indemnity insurance, which requires on-site loss assessment before claims can be settled, parametric insurance is based on objective pre-defined triggers. Once those triggers are met, payment is made automatically. For wildfires, one such trigger could be the area actually burned, measured using satellite imagery.
This approach offers several advantages:
1/ Rapid payouts, sometimes within just a few days;2/ Greater transparency, with triggers based on objective indicators and independently verifiable data, including public sources;
3/ Improved financial predictability, which is critical when recovery costs must be incurred immediately.
AXA Climate already designs and distributes such solutions in several regions around the world. In Chile, a parametric cover for a forestry company is triggered automatically when satellite imagery shows that a wildfire has burned more than 15,000 hectares. In 2023, this mechanism enabled the payment of tens of millions of dollars within days of a major wildfire, providing the liquidity needed to resume operations quickly.
In Australia, another AXA Climate solution relies on Sentinel-2 satellites from the European Copernicus programme. Burnt areas are calculated automatically and can trigger compensation of several tens of millions of dollars, paid within around ten days of the satellite data being validated.
Beyond compensation, insurance can also become a tool for adaptation. Through the European PIISA project, AXA Climate is working with Portugal’s Agency for Integrated Rural Fire Management (AGIF) to explore how preventive measures can be recognised within insurance frameworks. Simulations show that properly maintained fuel-break networks could reduce annual wildfire risk by 30% to 50%. In the longer term, this reduction in risk could be reflected in insurance terms and conditions, creating a financial incentive to invest in prevention rather than relying solely on post-disaster recovery.
Antoine Denoix, Chief Executive Officer of AXA Climate, said:
“For decades, insurance has focused primarily on compensating the consequences of disasters. In the face of climate change, its role is evolving. Insurance can also help measure risk more effectively, encourage investment in prevention and support communities in adapting to a changing climate.”
How AXA Climate mapped future fire exposure
This analysis is based on the Forest Weather Index (FWI), which assesses weather conditions favourable to wildfire spread using four variables: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation. The projections use DRIAS climate data and France’s Reference Warming Pathway for Climate Change Adaptation (TRACC), based on a +2.7°C warming scenario by 2050 and a +4°C scenario by 2100.
