Figure 1. Wildfire impacts from satellite images in Los Angeles (Source: Copernicus, BBC, Metro).
What made the Los Angeles wildfires so destructive?
LA county is naturally prone to wildfires due to its Mediterranean climate characterized by very warm and dry conditions which dries out the vegetation creating favorable conditions for wildfire spread. High intensity and fast spreading wildfires are typically occurring during the summer months from July to September when the vegetation is the driest. However, the 2025 LA wildfires were unprecedented in both spread and intensity, largely due to extreme Santa Ana winds and critically low vegetation moisture early in the year. These conditions stemmed from preceding factors, including one of the warmest summers on record in 2024 and an exceptionally dry fall, with almost no rain during a season when rainfall is normally expected.
This combination of climatic factors created what experts call “fire-prone conditions,” often measured by the Fire Weather Index (FWI). The FWI is derived from meteorological data—including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation—to assess wildfire danger levels. As shown in Figure 2-a, the average FWI for January 2025 was extremely high in LA County, reaching values above 50.
Figure 2-b demonstrate how unusual are these conditions by comparing FWI values with the historical average of the month, revealing a positive anomaly in LA County. This indicates that the FWI in January 2025 was substantially higher than the historical average highlighting the importance of extreme climate conditions as a driving factor of the LA wildfires. 
Figure 2. (a) Mean FWI for January, showing extreme values; (b) FWI anomaly for January 2025, indicating much higher indices around LA (black cross). The black polygon corresponds to Los Angeles County. The anomaly was computed relative to the 1985–2014 average. Data source: ERA5, processed by AXA Climate).
However, the impact of a wildfire does not depend solely on climate conditions; it also depends on the exposure and vulnerability of structures and populations in the affected area.
Exposure refers to the location, number of structures and people in an area in which wildfire events may occur. The proximity of wildland areas with flammable vegetation increases the wildfire impacts to people and assets. LA County has a high concentration of people and assets near wildland areas, as shown in Figure 3. In addition, there is an increasing trend of more people living in and at the edges of wildland areas, as known as wildland-urban interface (WUI). The expansion of WUI is increasing exposure to wildfires and potential damages of wildfires in recent years in this region (Radeloff et al., 2018). 
Figure 3. Map showing wildland-urban interfaces (in orange) across LA County. (Data source: State of California, SILVIS Lab.)
Another important factor is the vulnerability, which refers to how susceptible people and assets are to suffering adverse effects when wildfires occur. In LA most of buildings are made of wood based and dried materials, and when the atmosphere is dry, they combust readily, allowing wildfires to spread quickly through neighbourhoods and creating a great risk of destructive wildfires. Additionally, elderly population and low-income residents without personal vehicles may be more vulnerable to wildfires. This was observed in certain areas of LA, where populations with mobility problems were disproportionately affected due to greater difficulty evacuating to safety.
In summary, the impacts of the LA wildfires arose from a combination of climate extremes, hazardous landscapes, and social factors. Intense, fast-spreading fires intersected with exposed structures and vulnerable populations to create a catastrophic outcome.
Did climate change contribute to the outbreak of these wildfires?
Determining the precise influence of climate change on individual wildfires is complex. It requires examining the interplay between climate variability, vegetation changes, and wildfire activity. While few attribution studies on the 2025 LA wildfires exist, preliminary research indicates that the warm and dry conditions fueling these fires were 35% more likely to occur due to climate change (Barnes et al., 2025). Climate change may have also contributed to about 25% of the extreme fuel dryness, which intensified the wildfires (Madakumbura et al., 2025).
Despite a high level of uncertainty, multiple analyses point to a similar conclusion: rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns make wildfires in LA both more likely and more intense.
The findings are in line with the future climate projection, as this trend is projected to continue in the future. Future FWI projections based on six CMIP6 model indicates that the number of days per year with high FWI will increase by 7 days in 2030 and 18 days in 2050 under the pessimistic SSP5-8.5 scenario (see Figure 4). In relative terms, this translates to a 4% and 9% increase of FWI, indicating longer wildfire seasons with more frequent and intense wildfires, which is expected to exacerbate the impacts across LA in the near future. 
Figure 4. Number of days per year with FWI exceeding 21.3, indicating favourable climate conditions for wildfire spread across Los Angeles County. (Data: AXA Climate)
Future FWI projections are also in line with IPCC assessment indicating that fire prone conditions, which promote the likelihood of wildfires, have been shown to become more prevalent in Western North America, largely due to rising temperatures. As climate change continues, these conditions are expected to worsen, particularly in the southwestern regions of North America, with a high degree of confidence.
What strategies can help mitigate the impacts of future wildfires?
In the long–term, reducing emissions will help mitigate the impacts of climate change and wildfires everywhere. However, in the short-term communities can implement various mitigation and adaptation measures at the local scale to decrease the exposure and vulnerability to wildfires.
Implementing a land-use planning, discouraging the human developments to expand thought the wildlands might decrease the probability of human-started fires and consequently the exposure to wildfires might decrease. Additionally, employing vegetation management with a robust fuel reduction to buffer human developments within the wildland-urban interfaces and between buildings, might decrease the exposure and consequently minimize loss of structures and human lives.
Developing and applying fire-wise building regulations as well as implementing early warning systems that take into account population characteristics such as age and mobility might help decrease the vulnerability across LA county.
Finally, its necessary to think holistically on how to protect entire communities. Wildfires are expected to become more frequent and intense with climate change and a better understanding exposure and vulnerability is essential for determining how wildfire events will turn into disasters, and for designing and implementing effective adaptation and risk management strategies to mitigate the impacts of wildfires.
References
Barnes, C., Keeping, T., n.d. Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area. 2025. World Weather Attribution.
Gavin Madakumbura, Chad Thackeray, Alex Hall, Park Williams, Jesse Norris, and Ray Sukhdeo. Climate Change A Factor In Unprecedented LA Fires. 2025.
https://sustainablela.ucla.edu/2025lawildfires
MacDonald, G., Wall, T., Enquist, C.A.F., LeRoy, S.R., Bradford, J.B., Breshears, D.D., Brown, T., Cayan, D., Dong, C., Falk, D.A., Fleishman, E., Gershunov, A., Hunter, M., Loehman, R.A., Van Mantgem, P.J., Middleton, B.R., Safford, H.D., Schwartz, M.W., Trouet, V., 2023. Drivers of California’s changing wildfires: a state-of-the-knowledge synthesis. Int. J. Wildland Fire 32, 1039–1058. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22155
Radeloff, V.C., Helmers, D.P., Kramer, H.A., Mockrin, M.H., Alexandre, P.M., Bar-Massada, A., Butsic, V., Hawbaker, T.J., Martinuzzi, S., Syphard, A.D., Stewart, S.I., 2018. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115, 3314–3319. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718850115
