As climate hazards intensify, yields fluctuate, and expectations around sustainability rise, regenerative agriculture and agroecology are emerging as the way forward. But how can this transformation be supported without placing the full weight of economic risk on farmers? This is the central question of the new white paper published by AXA Climate: “How to Succeed and Manage the Economic Risks of the Agricultural Transition”.
Agroecological transition: one single path or a mosaic of solutions?
Despite its long-term benefits, the agroecological transition is often held back by uncertainties: potential yield losses, upfront investments, and technical complexity. The white paper stresses that while in some cases it can improve profitability, in others it brings additional costs or greater exposure to risk.
Yield losses of up to 45%
On one hand, AXA Climate’s climate impact studies to 2050 show that without changes in farming practices, maize yields could fall by up to –30% in the most exposed areas, while vine yields could drop by –45%. France has lost more than half its farmers in the past 40 years.
On the other hand, modelling shows that the simultaneous adoption of several agroecological practices (reduced tillage, cover crops, organic fertilisation) could deliver yield gains of +15% to +20% for wheat in north-eastern France. However, taken in isolation, reduced tillage could actually lead to losses of –2% to –3%.
Six case studies to reduce economic risks
The white paper highlights six agroecological practices (cutting chemical inputs, cover crops, tillage change, etc.) already tested in the field, supported by monitoring tools, yield analysis, and tailor-made risk solutions structured by AXA Climate.
One example: an innovative insurance product developed by Rémy Cointreau and AXA Climate in Cognac, linked to the decision-support tool DeciTrait. This tool tracks fungal disease risks in real time and triggers compensation if losses exceed a threshold.
In Pays de la Loire, CAVAC and AXA Climate created an insurance product covering the extra cost of complex cover crops: if less than 20 mm of rain over 10 days between early August and mid-September, the cost difference (€100/ha vs €30/ha) is reimbursed.
A transition to be built collectively
The principle of “transition insurance” is based on a clear promise: to guarantee farmers that a change in practice will not leave them worse off. The mechanism compares actual performance (yield or margin) with a counterfactual benchmark (no change). If the gap is significant, compensation is triggered.
The challenge is clear: short-term economic pressures must not overshadow long-term benefits. Success depends on a fair sharing of effort and costs. AXA Climate calls for co-constructed, pragmatic and collective solutions to secure the transition.
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