The Global Risk Modelling Alliance (GRMA) programme has provided a contract to Madagascar’s Cellule de Prévention et d’appui à la Gestion des Urgences (CPGU) to expand its support to the Government of Madagascar through a second phase of technical assistance. The new phase will be implemented with a consortium led by AXA Climate as implementing partner of the GRMA and will focus on advanced climate risk analytics, national capacity development and the long-term use of risk information in public decision-making.
Addressing Climate Risk Through Data-Driven Insights
Madagascar is highly exposed to natural hazards, including tropical cyclones, flooding, drought and other extreme climate events that can have significant consequences for communities, public finances and economic development. Strengthening the country’s ability to understand and quantify these risks is therefore essential to support effective disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation and climate and disaster risk financing.
Building on the first phase of the Global Risk Modelling Alliance (GRMA) programme in Madagascar, Phase II will deepen the use of quantitative risk analytics and further strengthen the ability of national stakeholders to apply risk information in planning and decision-making. Phase II will concentrate on three priority areas: analysing pluvial flood risk, the macro-economic impacts of climate risks, and internal displacement resulting from climate hazards.
The support will specifically aim to:
1/ Strengthen understanding of flood risk associated with heavy rainfall, including rainfall linked to tropical cyclones and non-cyclone-induced flooding, assess both the direct and indirect impacts of flood events.
2/ Develop a deeper understanding of the macro-economic consequences of climate hazards, including their direct and indirect effects on Madagascar’s national economy.
3/ Assess how climate shocks contribute to internal displacement, as well as the resulting impacts on populations and the potential implications for public and fiscal resources.
4/ Strengthen national technical capacity by enabling a designated group of Malagasy experts to use and apply the analytical tools, models and methodologies developed through the project.
Transforming Climate Risk Models into Decision-Making Tools
A central feature of the GRMA programme is on the transfer and accessibility of knowledge. As implementing partner, AXA Climate and its consortium partners, including the University of East Anglia (UEA), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), researchers from Antananarivo and Paris-Saclay University, the Observatoire National des Migrations and OpenStreetMap Madagascar, will place a strong emphasis on the co-development of data, models and analytical tools between technical service providers and national experts.
New datasets, models and analytical outputs developed through the project will be made available to the Government of Madagascar and relevant stakeholders so they can continue to apply them beyond the duration of GRMA support. Phase II will also include data collection and updating activities to supplement the information needed for the various planned analyses. These activities may include exposure data, socio-economic data, and data relating to the vulnerability of populations and territories.
Embedding Climate Risk Intelligence in Public Policy and Finance
The project will also work to ensure that risk information is accessible and usable by national and sub-national development planners, public institutions and relevant private-sector organisations. This will help integrate climate risk considerations into development planning, investment decisions, sectoral programmes, disaster risk reduction and climate risk financing strategies.
Dr. Annette Detken, Head of GRMA, said “Madagascar’s second phase of GRMA support is an important step from developing risk information towards informed decision-making. By working closely with Malagasy experts to co-develop the models, data and analytical tools, we want to ensure that the capabilities created through this programme continue to support better decisions long after the project has concluded. Understanding of flood risk, macro-economic impacts and climate-related displacement will help Madagascar to strengthen its resilience, protect vulnerable communities and make more informed choices about managing and financing climate risk.”
Colonel Randrianirina Patrick, Executive Secretary from CPGU, stated “The achievements of the first phase of Madagascar’s collaboration with the GRMA Program have strengthened our understanding of risks through relevant and up-to-date tools, thereby facilitating decision-making and the promotion of resilience. It is therefore with great interest that Madagascar embarks on the implementation of Phase II. Its focus on flood risks, the macroeconomic impacts of climate change, and climate-related internal displacement will further enrich the country’s risk analysis and management tools. We reiterate our deep gratitude to the GRMA Program for its unwavering support of Madagascar’s efforts to build greater resilience.”
Karina Whalley, Head of Public Sector Consulting AXA Climate, added “AXA Climate and our consortium are honoured to support the CPGU and wider government experts to be better equipped in key decision-making. This second phase will demonstrate the potential of the climate risk models developed in Phase I, as they will now serve as inputs to understand the impact of climate shocks on migration and the economy.”
