Fundación AXA has presented a new study conducted by AXA Climate on the risks that climate change poses to Catalonia, Barcelona and its local economy. The study focuses on three key climate risks for with a time horizon to 2050. Its intention is to equip decision-makers with science and pragmatism so they can act on climate change adaptation. By mid-century, the region could lose up to 14% of its GDP per capita. What does this mean for the city?
Without effective climate adaptation, extreme heat could reduce GDP per capita by 14% by 2050
The summer of 2025 was a reminder that extreme heat is the most serious climate risk for both health and the economy. Heatwaves are becoming more intense, longer, and more frequent. Sectors dependent on physical labour and the natural environment are especially exposed because sweltering days and tropical nights stress people and other living beings. Farmers and winegrowers know this all too well.
For Barcelona, projections indicate 32 additional days of extreme heat by 2050. That pressure on labour, productivity, and demand could reduce GDP per capita by 14%. By the end of the century, the city could experience eleven times as many days above 33°C and 3 times more tropical nights (temperatures that remain above 20 °C overnight) [1].
Increase in maximum temperatures from the baseline to 2050 under SSP5-8.5.
Sources: AXA Climate
These trends have direct impacts on key sectors:
1/ In construction, two weeks of work per year could be lost by 2030 due to heat-stroke risk [2].
2/ For tourists, avoiding the midday window from from 12 pm to 5 pm on days above 30°C can mean losing up to 2 days of active sightseeing during a stay.
3/ In elite sport, physical performance can drop by up to 30% when temperatures exceed 55°C [3].
4/ The human impact is the most serious concern. As seen this summer, extreme heat is lethal and Barcelona could face the highest heatwave mortality in Europe, with up to 250,000 additional deaths projected [4].
Adapting to this reality is urgent. As a first step in the short term, companies can take practical measures such as raising staff awareness, reorganising schedules and workspaces, and conducting vulnerability assessments to inform safety protocols and contingency plans, among others.
A 100-year flood could affect 40% of central Barcelona and disrupt essential services
While extreme heat is currently the most critical risk for tourism and public health in Barcelona, by 2050 flooding emerges as the threat with the largest impact on assets and infrastructure on the city. Up to 40% of the population in central Barcelona could be affected within the next 25 years due to increasingly widespread torrential rainfall.
A 100-year flood, refers to a flood event with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, which could become more frequent as the climate warms.
Rising Mediterranean temperatures by 2050 will intensify DANAs and increase all types of flooding (SSP5-8.5). Source: AXA Climate
Although total precipitation trends downward, rainfall is concentrating into fewer days with much higher intensity. Late-summer cut-off lows known as DANAs (Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos) can dump large volumes of water in short bursts, producing pluvial flooding in urban areas. The risks are compounded by the warming Mediterranean which raises the probability of coastal and fluvial flooding that could exceed the capacity of current coastal and hydraulic defenses.
Flooded airport runway, March 16 2025, Barcelona, Spain
The reach of flood impacts is economy-wide. Commerce, transport, logistics, tourism, and public services all face disruption. There is some good news. With effective climate adaptation measures, 70 to 100% of impacts can be reduced.
To start, the practical path for companies is to select from a wide range of measures, while tailoring choices to each location and adopting a systemic approach that anticipates full disruption scenarios. Below is an example of practical steps that can be taken.
Example of a non-exhaustive matrix for an industrial company in the event of an extreme flood. Source: AXA Climate.
Water demand may exceed supply by 94% by 2050, putting agriculture and urban life under pressure
Floods are visible and immediate, yet the opposite phenomenon also demands sustained attention. Barcelona has long adapted to water stress and recently endured a record three-year drought. In January 2024, reservoir levels fell to a critical 16,2% of capacity. This required general restrictions, diversification of water sources, and intensified leakage reduction to build a more resilient water management system.
The pattern is paradoxical. Rainfall is becoming more intense but less frequent. Large volumes arrive in short periods, while water is scarcer when it is needed most. The imbalance drives a growing shortage that affects urban consumption, agriculture, industry, and ecosystems, particularly in hotter months when demand peaks and natural reserves are near their limits. In July 2025, water demand exceeded available resources by 90%.
Average annual water stress in the watershed (%), defined as the ratio between available water resources and demand. Comparative scenarios 2030, 2050 and 2080. Source: AXA Climate.
Projections show that by 2050, summer water-stress episodes could become the annual norm. Barcelona will be 1.4 times more exposed, and yearly demand could exceed available resources by 94%. The consequences will be diverse and especially severe for water-intensive activities such as agriculture and tourism. The broader population will also feel the effects through higher food prices and rising health risks.
Industry has a leadership role to play on climate adaptation and water efficiency to protect operational continuity. In extreme drought, authorities will prioritise water supply for households and essential sectors including agriculture. To support this transition, a cost-benefit matrix maps measures that range from water conservation awareness programmes and detailed consumption monitoring to water recycling and adjusting production to actual water availability. Each measure must be adapted to the specific conditions of each site before implementation.
Beyond assessment: implementing climate adaptation strategies
The magnitude of future impacts depends on how far the global temperature increase goes beyond 1.5°C and how quickly greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced to contain warming to 2°C relative to the pre-industrial period. In practical terms, this is the last opportunity to avoid dramatic GDP declines by 2050. Action must target causes and consequences. That means accelerating decarbonisation, restoring ecosystems, and removing carbon dioxide while also adapting to physical impacts that are already here and that will intensify over the coming decades.
For companies operating in Barcelona and Catalonia, 4 steps translate this diagnosis into execution:
1/ Analyse specific risks and vulnerabilities.
2/ Think ahead to the future challenges the organisation will face.
3/ Anticipate by implementing preventive adaptation measures.
4/ Build awareness and establish dialogue that involves all parties across economic sectors, the public sector, and civil society since adaptation only works when it is shared.
